70 Districts Decide House Control

Seventy congressional districts are in play in the 2026 midterm elections, with both major parties committing at least six figures to advertising in each contest. This figure marks a sharp expansion of the competitive landscape compared to previous cycles. The final week of voting begins now as candidates race to influence undecided voters before November 3.

Campaign spending data reveals where the money is flowing. Michigan, North Carolina, New York, and Florida have seen more than $10 million poured into their respective toss-up districts. Deep red areas in Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas have also attracted seven-figure ad buys. The most expensive races are Michigan’s 7th District and North Carolina’s 1st District, where each side plans to spend over $12 million.

The House currently sits with a narrow Republican majority of 218 to 214. That lead appears vulnerable as the midterm season unfolds. The Cook Political Report rates Democrats as favored in 220 seats. They list 17 races as toss-ups and another 30 as leaning toward the GOP. Democrats hold a 10-point advantage among registered voters according to the latest NPR, PBS News, and Marist poll. That gap narrows to 8 points among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot.

Redistricting has scrambled the map since the 2024 election. Republicans adjusted boundaries to add conservative voters to districts held by Democrats. This move affected seats represented by Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Don Davis in North Carolina, Shomari Figures in Alabama, and Darren Soto in Florida. Democrats made similar changes in California. They targeted districts held by Republicans James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, and independent Kevin Kiley. Only Figures and Soto currently occupy districts that favor Republicans.

Voters cite cost of living as their top concern. Rising gas prices, tariffs, and the war in Iran drive economic anxiety. A record number of congressional retirement announcements has further fueled anti-incumbency sentiment. Republicans slashed ad reservations in recent weeks in four districts that voted for a different party in the presidential election than in the House race. Those seats are held by Adam Gray, Nellie Pou, and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez. Retiring Republican Don Bacon is also in that group.

Sixty districts are listed as priorities by both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Republican House campaign arm. The average of these 70 competitive districts voted for Donald Trump by 9 points in 2024. Some of these races are not expected to be close. Many of the DCCC's Districts In Play gave Trump closer to 60% of the vote in 2024. These specific contests have seen little to no ad spending from either party.

The final days of the campaign will determine how high the Democratic wave crests. Ad spending continues to target districts where gerrymandering by Republicans might backfire. Voters have already cast ballots in large numbers. The outcome will hinge on turnout and the impact of late-stage messaging in these 70 key battlegrounds.