Latino Approval Falls as Midterms Near

For millions of Latino voters across the United States, the November 3 midterm election represents a direct referendum on the current administration. With House control hinging on tight races in states like Arizona, Colorado, and Texas, the shifting sentiment within this demographic is now the central variable in the congressional fight.

The primary driver of this shift is economic frustration. An NBC News/Telemundo poll released in October indicates that 78% of Latino voters disapprove of the president's handling of the cost of living. Another 74% disapprove of his economic management. Among independent Latino voters, 72% believe current policies have hurt the economy, while only 10% say the policies have helped them. This economic strain is forcing a reevaluation of support for the party that returned Donald Trump to the White House in 2024.

Immigration policy serves as the second major point of contention. The same survey finds that 69% of Latino voters disapprove of the administration's immigration approach, with two-thirds believing recent enforcement measures have gone too far. The policy has tangible effects on communities: 31% of respondents reported that they or a close contact began carrying identification due to fear of ICE operations. Additionally, 27% know someone who has been detained or deported in the last two years.

These attitudes translate directly into voting intentions. According to the data, 59% of Latino voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared to 35% who favor a Republican majority. Furthermore, 54% stated their vote in the midterms is intended to send a message of opposition to Trump. Clarissa Martinez De Castro, vice president of the Latino Voter Initiative, noted that most Latino families are "just surviving" despite hard work, suggesting the current leadership is not focusing enough on economic needs.

The demographic weight of this group makes it impossible to ignore in the final stretch. Pew Research Center projects approximately 39 million eligible Latino voters for the 2026 midterms. This figure marks a 16% increase, or more than 5.2 million voters, compared to 2022. Mark Hugo Lopez, Pew’s director of race and ethnicity research, confirmed that Latinos are now the second-largest group of eligible voters in the country, trailing only white voters.

President Trump maintains a different outlook on his standing with this group. Speaking during a campaign trip to Texas on October 2, he dismissed the polling concerns and defended his immigration stance. "I have a tremendous Hispanic vote," Trump said, adding that the administration "has to do what we have to do" regarding mass deportations. As the election date approaches, the gap between the president's assessment and the reported sentiment among Latino households will likely be settled in specific congressional districts rather than in the national popular vote.