Saint Leo University students predict outcomes for Nov. 3 races

Students at Saint Leo University in Florida have finalized their predictions for the Nov. 3 midterm elections, focusing on competitive U.S. Senate and state governor races. The class, POL 304: Campaigns and Elections, meets every two years to align with election cycles. Participants examine electoral history, candidate profiles, and voter data to test their analytical skills against real-world outcomes.

Frank Orlando, the political science instructor teaching the course, said he wants students to shift from casual observers to trained analysts. He noted that campaigns often prioritize older voters because converting younger people from potential voters to actual voters is difficult. He described this challenge as both a skill and will issue for candidates targeting Generation Z.

The students are tracking specific contests in Florida, Texas, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa. In Florida, sophomore Evie Paget predicts Republicans will retain both the Senate and governor’s offices. She expects Sen. Ashley Moody to defeat state Rep. Angie Nixon and U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds to beat former Rep. David Jolly. Paget attributed Nixon’s strong showing among young voters to her rebellious persona, though she does not expect Nixon to win the seat.

In Texas, junior Elijah Penn expects a close Senate race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Penn said he was surprised by how tight the contest remains, given Talarico’s progressive stance and the state’s conservative leanings. He believes suburban and border counties will be decisive. Recent polls indicate the race is within a few points.

Junior Ethan Parks is analyzing Michigan, where he predicts Democrat Abdul El-Sayed will defeat Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers for the Senate seat. Parks said he initially favored Rogers but changed his mind after studying the role of independent voters. He noted that younger voters are increasingly concerned about the conflict in the Middle East and are tired of perpetual warfare.

Angeliki Thomas, a senior, is studying Ohio, where she believes Democrats Sherrod Brown and Amy Acton will narrowly defeat their Republican counterparts, Sen. Jon Husted and Vivek Ramaswamy. Thomas cited Ramaswamy’s attack ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother as a factor that backfired. She said the Democrats’ focus on localized campaigning may help them secure both offices.

Junior Amaria Solomon is tracking Alaska, where she thinks Democrat Mary Peltola has the edge over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Solomon said Peltola’s status as an Alaska native and her focus on state issues may appeal to the large population of independent registered voters. In Iowa, junior Vincent Farides expects independents to decide the Senate race between Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek and Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, a contest that has remained relatively free of national controversy.

The class will hold an election night watch party starting at 7 p.m. on Nov. 3 to compare their forecasts with the final results. Orlando said understanding the system helps students become informed and potentially change it. The students’ predictions rely on current polling data and demographic trends, with the final verdict arriving in just over two weeks.