Midterm Outlook: Democrats Favored to Take House

The political calculus for the upcoming midterm elections has shifted sharply toward the Democrats, driven by economic dissatisfaction and historical voting patterns.

President Trump entered his second term with a mandate to lower prices, but that objective has not been met. Instead, his administration faces record-low approval ratings and heightened opposition. Voters are increasingly attributing rising costs to the war with Iran and the implementation of new tariffs. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll indicates that 44% of respondents feel their finances have stayed the same, while 38% report their economic situations have worsened. Only 15% say their money situation has improved.

This economic strain is compounded by anger over hard-line immigration enforcement, cuts to Medicaid, and reductions in the federal workforce. These factors are energizing swing voters and Democrats. History suggests the president's party usually loses ground in midterm years. Since World War II, the president's party has gained House seats only twice. When a president's approval rating is below 50%, as Trump's currently is, the party loses an average of 35 seats. That is a significantly larger loss than the 15-seat average when approval ratings are above 50%.

Democrats have overperformed in special elections and 2025 off-year contests. They are currently favored to win control of the House and are within striking distance of taking the Senate. However, structural challenges remain for the opposition. The Cook Political Report lists approximately 30 fewer competitive districts this year than in 2018, when Democrats gained more than 40 seats. Mid-decade redistricting has also benefited Republicans. An NPR analysis estimates that GOP-led state legislatures netted an eight-seat advantage through redistricting efforts.

Despite these headwinds, Republican candidates have largely removed references to Trump from their advertisements. They previously leaned heavily on the president during the primaries, but now he is nearly absent from their messaging. Party insiders describe Trump as a double-edged sword, necessary for the base but toxic to swing voters. The latest poll found that 44% of respondents view their vote as a rejection of Trump, compared to 21% who see it as a vote for him.

Election night results may not be immediate. In close races, particularly in the Senate, party control could remain uncertain for days or weeks. A quarter of Republicans in the latest poll said their candidate should not necessarily accept the results if the race is close. Trump has already begun preparing the ground for potential challenges to the outcome. The 2028 presidential cycle effectively begins now, with candidates expected to announce their bids as early as January or February to gain national momentum.