Texas leads surge in early voting ahead of Senate races

Millions of Americans have already cast their ballots for the 2026 midterm elections, a trend that is reshaping the final stretch of the campaign. An Associated Press analysis of voting data released five days before Election Day shows a substantial increase in advance participation compared to the previous midterm. This shift forces candidates to adjust their final days of campaigning to target voters who have already made their choice.

The national total for early voting has reached more than 43 million ballots. This figure includes those cast in person and mail ballots returned by voters. It represents an increase of nearly 10 million votes over the count at the same point in the 2022 election. The data covers 47 states and Washington, D.C., while the 2022 figures included 48 states and the capital.

Texas is experiencing the largest volume of early voting due to a highly competitive slate of races. More than 6.3 million Texans had voted by Wednesday, which is a 50 percent increase over the 4.2 million who voted early four years ago. The state holds races for governor, the U.S. Senate, and the U.S. House. Early in-person voting in Texas ends Friday, marking the close of its two-week advance voting period.

Other Senate battlegrounds are seeing similar spikes in participation. In South Carolina, early voting has risen by 83 percent compared to 2022. The state is electing a successor to the late Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. In Maine, early votes are up 44 percent in a race between Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson.

Michigan recorded roughly 409,000 more early votes than in 2022, a 32 percent increase. This is the first midterm election where early in-person voting is available statewide in Michigan, following voter approval in November 2022. Kansas also saw a 34 percent rise, with approximately 83,000 more ballots cast than four years ago in the contest between Sen. Roger Marshall and Adam Hamilton.

In states that track party affiliation, the early vote is split between the major parties. About 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans have cast their ballots early. These numbers do not account for all early voters nationwide or reveal specific candidate preferences. The data provides a snapshot of turnout as voters prepare to determine control of Congress.

The election will take place two years into President Donald Trump’s second term. Republicans currently hold both the House and the Senate. The battleground map for the Senate has expanded, with Democrats seeking to gain seats in states that have historically favored Republicans. Republicans are defending a 53 to 47 majority in the upper chamber.

Harris County, which includes Houston, illustrates the intensity of the Texas race. As of Wednesday, 862,700 residents in the county had voted, compared with 564,500 at the same time in 2022. The county has voted for Democratic candidates in recent statewide races, though margins have varied. In 2024, Democrat Kamala Harris defeated Trump by nearly six percentage points in the county, while Colin Allred carried the area by roughly 11 percentage points in the Senate race.