Lula Defeats Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil Runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won 51.79% of the vote to secure a fourth nonconsecutive term as president of Brazil, defeating senator Flávio Bolsonaro by a margin of 4.3 million votes. The 80-year-old incumbent claimed victory just after midnight UK time, marking a complete reversal of the first-round results from earlier this month.

In the initial vote in early October, Flávio Bolsonaro received 56.1 million votes to Lula’s 53.8 million. The first-round tally gave the 45-year-old senator 47.03% of the support compared to Lula’s 45.16%. No first-round runner-up in Brazilian history had previously won the subsequent ballot. The second round saw the gap narrow to 48.21% for Bolsonaro, driven by a surge in voter turnout among progressive bases following a record 21% abstention rate in the first round.

The campaign was shaped by Flávio Bolsonaro’s appeal to evangelical voters and urban crime concerns, while Lula mobilized supporters through a WhatsApp network called “Lula’s army” and began posting on Instagram and TikTok. The president’s digital reach overtook that of his opponent for the first time. Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign also faced scrutiny over a report by Piauí magazine alleging he attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the 2020 pandemic.

Allegations of unequal treatment by Meta on social platforms added to the tension. A dozen watchdog groups published reports claiming the company favored the senator’s campaign. Brazil’s electoral court ordered Meta to stop giving candidates unequal treatment, while the firm labeled the claims false. Flávio Bolsonaro cited a decision to extend voting hours by two hours as a reason for his refusal to concede, though both camps had requested the extension.

Flávio Bolsonaro said it was impossible to concede the result. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after his 2022 loss. Flávio Bolsonaro is expected to travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations, according to correspondent Tom Phillips. World leaders have begun congratulating Lula, recognizing his win as the formal outcome of the election.

Lula’s victory maintains the current administration’s environmental policies, which have reduced Amazon deforestation by more than 70% since 2023. He will govern with a newly elected congress that includes a record number of right-wing politicians. The president rejected an invitation to join a Latin American coalition conducting military operations against drug cartels with the US Pentagon, maintaining a multilateral foreign policy approach.

Lula turns 81 on Tuesday. The election results were declared in a narrow contest where the choice of Brazil’s 159 million voters was clear. Supporters cheered in São Paulo as fireworks exploded over the city following the announcement.

The outcome follows a series of high-stakes elections in Serbia, where a student-led movement ousted leader Aleksandar Vučić. Israel goes to the polls on Tuesday amid a lockdown of the West Bank. Brazil’s next president will take office with a mandate to continue his environmental mission while navigating a divided legislature.