Israel Votes in First Election Since October 2023 Attacks, With Neither Bloc Clear of a Majority

Israelis will vote on Tuesday in legislative elections described as among the most consequential in the country's history. It is the first national vote since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023 and the war in the Gaza Strip that followed, and it will shape the direction of a government facing several long-running conflicts, mounting international criticism and deep divisions at home.

Two main blocs are competing to lead the next government. The first is the pro-Netanyahu coalition, built around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party and joined by far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. These include United Torah Judaism and Shas, both conservative religious parties, as well as Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, led by far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

The opposition coalition brings together four Jewish-led movements: the Yashar party of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, the Democrats led by former deputy chief of staff Yair Golan, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Together alliance of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, which opposition leader Yair Lapid has joined. A party must clear a 3.25 percent threshold to enter parliament, which serves a four-year term.

The last polls before a publication ban took effect on Friday suggested neither side would reach the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. A survey by public broadcaster KAN projected 52 seats for the opposition alliance and 50 for Netanyahu's bloc, with the rest going to unaffiliated parties, including the two main Arab-majority lists, Ra'am and the Joint List. Both major blocs have effectively ruled out partnering with the Arab-led parties for now, which could make coalition talks difficult and raise the prospect of a minority government or another election.

Domestic concerns loom large. Voters are demanding accountability for reported security failures, including those before the October 2023 attacks, and many are angry about the ultra-Orthodox community's military exemption. Critics also object to Netanyahu's repeated attempts at judicial reform, which they say weaken Israel's liberal democratic order. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said secular and liberal opposition factions see this as "the last chance to save Israeli democracy."

The vote also comes as Israel's global standing has slipped. Several allies have sanctioned its illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, and many countries have condemned its continued attacks in Gaza and Lebanon. When Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly on September 24, dozens of envoys walked out, some jeering and booing.

The stakes are personal for Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, who has led the country for more than 15 of the last 17 years. He faces scrutiny over alleged security failures before October 7 and corruption charges he has fought since 2019. A defeat would leave him more exposed in his ongoing trial, which could end in a prison sentence if he is convicted. A new government could also affect the prospects of an inquiry into the 2023 attacks. Netanyahu is also subject to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes.

About 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote, including roughly 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polling suggests turnout in that community could reach 60 percent, and at 65 percent the Arab parties could win as many as 15 seats. Campaigners are aiming for 70 percent, which would be the highest in decades. Last month, the Central Elections Committee voted to bar the Joint List and Ra'am, but the Supreme Court quickly reversed that decision. The court did, however, force Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article calling the October 7 attacks "an important historical event."

Netanyahu has portrayed his rivals as potential partners of the Arab parties, saying only Likud can prevent that. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, argued that this is part of a strategy that could keep Netanyahu in office as a caretaker prime minister if no bloc secures a majority. Meanwhile, roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem have no say in the government that controls their borders, movement and legal status.