Netanyahu Bloc Leads Initial Count in Fragmented Israeli Election

Initial counts from the Central Elections Committee placed Likud as the largest single party with 27 seats. This gave Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc a projected 54 seats, slightly ahead of Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc, which was projected to win 50 seats.

The race remains tight according to exit polls released on election night. Kan 11 and Channel 13 reported the two blocs as level with 51 seats each. Channel 12 gave Netanyahu’s side 52 seats against 49 for Eisenkot. Channel 15 provided the most favorable projection for the incumbent, assigning 55 seats to Netanyahu’s group and 49 to the opposition.

Israelis cast their votes on October 27. The Knesset has 120 seats, and a governing coalition requires the support of at least 61 members. Neither of the two main blocs reached that threshold in the early data. The political challenge now shifts to finding additional parties willing to join a government.

Arab-led parties Ra’am and the Joint List hold the potential to break the deadlock. Exit polls estimated their combined support at between 16 and 19 seats. However, forming a government with these parties faces high political barriers. Netanyahu has called a coalition with Arab parties “shameful,” while key figures in the Jewish-led opposition have also ruled out such a partnership.

Netanyahu’s bloc includes Likud, the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, and the far-right parties Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit. Eisenkot’s opposition bloc comprises his Yashar party, the Together list, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, and Yair Golan’s Democrats.

Once the president certifies the results, he will grant a mandate to the Knesset member deemed most likely to assemble a majority. That politician has 28 days to form a government, with a possible extension of up to 14 days. If they fail, another lawmaker may be given the chance. If no one succeeds, Israel faces another election, a scenario that occurred repeatedly between 2019 and 2022.

Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for 19 years across three stints, remains caretaker prime minister during these negotiations. He continues to stand trial on corruption charges, which he denies. Official results are scheduled for release on November 4, though coalition talks may extend well beyond that date.